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Elevated risk of flooding today and tomorrow (6/8-6/9)

June 9, 2011

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of flash flooding for the area for the time period 7:00a Friday to 7:00a Saturday.

Today’s rains have brought over 2 inches of rain since about 11:00p last night, with a total of about 2.25″-2.50″ 2.35″ as the last batch of rain moves through. While no severe weather impacted the area, there were multiple instances of lights flashing and some strong outflow gusts preceding the storm.

This afternoon, storms will redevelop, although this activity is expected to remain mostly south of I-80. Nonetheless, an additional 0.50″ of rain is expected; if the models are too far south on the placement of this band of precipitation, up to 1.00″ of rain can be expected. Update 7:48p: At this point, no rain is expected until the main system arrives tonight.

Late tonight into early Friday morning, another round of thunderstorms is expected to roll across the area; it is too early to know how much rain will fall during this time period.

The main risk of heavy rain will come Friday night into Saturday morning, which is the time period the HPC expects there to be a slight risk of flash flooding. Again, prediction amounts are not reliably available at this time.

There is the distinct possibility that the storm total for Thursday, Friday and Saturday will be over 3.00″ (as we are already at about 2.50″ of rain). There is an outside chance the storm total will be over 5.00″ of rain. With very little time for the watershed to allow today’s rain to runoff into the DuPage River, moderate flooding is possible.

This blog will continue to be updated with the latest forecasts and rainfall amounts as they come in.

Update 3:14p: The latest QPF excessive rainfall forecast discussion points to widespread amounts of 1.00-2.00″ tonight, with isolated amounts of 2.00-3.00″ possible. This amount of rain in such a short period time would result in substantial rises on Klein Creek, but the rises should be less than the 7.28″ and 8.48″ amounts in July 2010 and September 2008, respectively.

This still does not take into account the broader threat of heavy rain on Friday night.

Update: 3:19p The latest area forecast discussion indicates that a Flash Flood Watch will be issued by the National Weather Service tonight. It will run through noon Friday. It is still too early to determine where the heaviest rain will fall on Friday night.

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One Comment leave one →
  1. Hopeful_One permalink
    August 7, 2011 3:31 pm

    It seems to me that thunderbird and seminol was gound zero for the micro burst.Trees all around the intersection recieved damage. Also two lightning strikes at the same intersection.

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