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Realtime Event Info – 4/17-18

April 17, 2013

Forecast

  • As of 5:00p 4/16, 2.5-3.0″ of rain is expected (Weather Prediction Center)
  • Rain and thunder chances ramping up significantly after 4/17 7:00a
  • Only 2.25″ in 6 hours required to cause flash flooding (Flash Flood Guidance)
  • Essentially one month’s worth of rainfall is possible tomorrow

Concerns

  • Saturated ground
  • Current Armstrong Park flood capacity reduced (pictures to come)
  • Possibility for more than the forecast amount of rain

Impacts

  • Closed streets

QPF forecast as of midnight 4/1 vs. observed values

See this Google Doc

Quotes

NWS Chicago:

FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH...IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS
2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND MAY GET
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BE 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IN OTHER WORDS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS HIGH.

NWS Quad Cities:

60 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT
EXCELLENT FEED OFF THE GULF WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.50-1.70
INCHES ACROSS THE DVN CWA. THIS IS IN RECORD TERRITORY FOR APRIL AND
PAST CASES WITH THIS VERY HIGH PW`S RESULTED IN EXTREME EVENTS. RAIN
AMOUNTS JUST IN THIS TIME FRAME (NOT COUNTING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER A WIDE AREA OF THE CWA. ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OR TRAINING TAKING PLACE WILL YIELD EVEN
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
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